Agricultural
15 November, 2025
Bumper beef and grain production, improving conditions set growers and consumers up for Happy New Year
The Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Monthly Commodity Update for November contains several positive findings and a major milestone as the year draws to a close.
Australian cattle exports reached the second highest monthly volume on record, the third-largest winter grain crop is waiting in the wings and there’s good news for consumers in the run-up to Christmas with prices for high quality fruit and vegetables expected to ease in time for the festive season.
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Senior Insights Analyst, Sean Hickey said: “Australian beef exports continue to increase in leaps and bounds with ongoing high export demand seeing many processing centres keen to lock in supply well in advance to ensure they can meet international requirements.
“Seasonal conditions for beef production are forecast to be favourable in northern regions heading into next year which should keep restocker demand firm, feedlots active and producers holding onto stock. Queensland cattle comprised 53 per cent of the total volume sourced for processing with the state set to continue its dominance of the beef market throughout the remainder of this year and well into 2026.
“On the grains front, we have lifted Australia’s 2025/26 winter crop production estimate by 1.2 per cent to 61.8Mmt, making this year the third-largest winter crop on record, with a record national barley crop now all but assured.
“Notably, harvest in Western Australia is set to deliver its fourth 20Mmt-plus harvest in five years, a milestone once considered out of reach, but which seems to now represent the ‘new normal’. The bumper WA harvest has been shaped by a structural shift away from sheep production and has been supported by ongoing investment and advances in both agronomy and soil management.
“On the price front things are a little less certain. With headers set to ramp up, a sharp lift in grain availability could test recent price support once grower selling gathers pace. Feed grade spreads will also become more apparent as the markets gets a better handle on the crop's quality profile.
“For horticultural production, avocado pricing remains low with supply outpacing earlier industry forecasts and table grapes are set for very high yields, positioning grape growers for another large crop early in the new year. We also saw citrus yields up 10-15 per cent higher than last season.
“Mango pricing has finally started to ease just in time for Christmas after a slow start to the season and other summer favourites such as nectarines and peaches are also slowly coming to market, though in smaller volumes which is keeping prices high.
“We expect stonefruit pricing to drop fairly quickly over coming weeks as volumes come to market, along with early season cherries which are just starting to hit the shelves. Almond crops are also tracking strongly with strong pricing signals from processors due to China’s elevated tariffs on the US which will ensure Australian almond exports retain an advantage into the Chinese market”, Mr Hickey concluded.
Other key insights for Australian primary producers:
Cattle: Australian cattle prices recorded a volatile month throughout October. Weather conditions, supply chain issues and export demand all played a part in pricing trends. Warmer conditions at the beginning of the month translated into more stock coming to saleyards, with downwards pressure on prices. The back half of the month saw rainfall arrive and producers holding onto stock or facing issues getting cattle to market, which in turn applied upwards pressure on prices as processing centres competed to get their hands on more stock.
Australian beef exports sat at 139,286 tonnes in October, a seven per cent increase on October last year and marginally higher than September. October was also the second largest monthly export volume on record after July’s bombshell 150,435 tonnes. The overall landscape for Australian beef remains favourable as the industry moves into the final months of 2025 and into 2026, particularly for QLD, NSW and Victoria.
Cropping: With harvest underway nationwide, actual deliveries will override modelled estimates – particularly in WA where structural land-use changes remain difficult to quantify. National winter crop estimate has lifted to 61.8Mmt, with WA leading the charge to the third-largest winter crop on record.
The increase was largely driven by WA, where a soft finish has seen crops fill under mostly ideal conditions. Two key uncertainties remain difficult to quantify in the modelling: the scale of WA’s structural shift toward continuous cropping and the extent of the cereal area cut for hay on the East Coast. Both factors will significantly influence final production totals and the composition of Australia’s 2025/26 grain supply. As conditions improve, attention will shift to how quickly new-season grain flows to market and whether current price support holds once harvest pressure intensifies. Feed grains remain exposed to downside risk as grower selling accelerates through November, while higher quality wheat is likely to draw firm export demand, preserving grade spreads despite increased volume. Recent gains in US wheat futures and a weaker Australian dollar have enhanced Australia’s export competitiveness, offsetting some domestic harvest-driven softness and underpinning overall market resilience heading into year end. A record national barley crop is now all but assured, keeping prices contained despite a weaker Australian dollar and ongoing demand from China.
Dairy: Australian milk production has reduced its year-on-year losses as the northern states and Tasmania post gains, but with questions as to whether this will continue. Global milk intakes still weigh on dairy commodity values, with farmgate prices already falling in the United States and EU. With relatively static demand, buoyant milk supply means little upside for farmgate prices and limited relief from the squeeze of ongoing cost pressures. As Australia’s milk production nears its seasonal peak, September data released by Dairy Australia indicates that volumes are gaining ground after a challenging start to the season. Easing grain prices and recent reports of crops being cut for hay are welcome news for dairy farmers, however feed will remain the key risk, weighing on many decisions in the coming months. Australia’s relative recovery in milk production risks being drowned out by the volumes flowing to processors in major competing export regions with a surge in European milk production and New Zealand milk intakes setting a new September record in solids. Any increases to farmgate offers will have to be driven by competitive dynamics and actions to support farmers through another high-cost season, particularly if conditions dry up later in spring.
Sheep: Lamb prices have eased from the highs seen throughout winter but are expected to hold relatively well between now and Christmas. Mutton markets have come back from the record set in early October, but it remains to be seen if the latest rain events spark renewed restocker interest. Australia’s sheepmeat exports continue to trend below last year’s levels on the back of the decline in processing rates. Australian lamb prices have moved lower throughout October due to dry conditions across the southeast and an uptick in supply. The National Trade Lamb Indicator eased -2.0 per cent to around 1136 c/kg over the past month, before rainfall towards the end of the month saw prices start to pick back up. Lamb processing rates trended higher over the past few weeks, lifting to 436 thousand head in the week ending Friday 31 October 2025, only beaten by the preceding week for the highest total since June.
The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) has also eased from the records seen at the start of the month with prices expected to be steady to marginally weaker through until Christmas, as supply pressure from both lamb and mutton will weigh on prices and buffer the upside coming from restockers. There has been a slight increase in Australia’s sheepmeat exports. The US has seen a marginal decline in lamb export volumes so far in 2025, while mutton exports to the US are also down -22.6 per cent. Lamb exports to China have increased by +19.5 per cent so far in 2025 while mutton exports to China have also slowed considerably in 2025, down -31.0 per cent compared to Australia’s total decline of -13.7 per cent.
Wool: The AWEX EMI is now sitting at 1,419 c/kg. While lower than the recent highs, this is still 25.4 per cent higher than the same time last year. With the Australian dollar having weakened in recent weeks, the EMI in USc terms has fluctuated more recently, currently sitting at 924 USc/Kg. There had been concerns that a stronger Australian dollar may dampen sentiment and put downwards pressure on price, but at this point in the year, currency changes are having less impact on the price than in recent seasons, a good indicator the underlying market dynamics are coming to the fore. We forecast a drop in supply for this season, due to decreasing flock numbers, increasing input costs and seasonal challenges.
China remains the biggest driver of demand for Australian wool, and the recent price increases saw a reduction in demand, however, as the busy season approaches, Chinese buyers will engage competitively in auctions to ensure they have sufficient supplies. While the prices are higher in the finer microns, it is likely there’ll be stronger demand for the good quality, slightly coarser microns to use for blending and keeping buyers’ price points lower. This should continue to support the price levels of the coarser microns, while the finer microns find their new price floor.
Horticulture: Avocado pricing remains low with supply outpacing earlier industry forecasts across North Queensland and Western Australia. Low prices will likely see annual domestic consumption per capita lift above 5kg per person for the first time. Further expansion of export volumes will be required to ensure margins remain sustainable. The industry remains hopeful that negotiations between the Australian and Chinese governments will allow market access for producers sooner rather than later, with the industry forecast to see production hit over 170,000 tonnes by 2027, up from just over 150,000 tonnes in 2025.
Citrus harvest yields across the Sunraysia and Riverland regions have come in around 10-15% above last season with strong quality also reported. A high proportion of first grade and export quality (KCT) fruit was achieved with market prices relatively stable, comparable to those of last season which added further confidence to the sector. There continues to be an oversupply of orange juice in the market, a situation that has continued from last season. This ongoing surplus has placed downward pressure on factory juice prices, which remains low.
Almond crops across Sunraysia and Riverland are tracking strongly with yields looking similar to last year’s levels. Growers are optimistic that high grade packouts will be maintained. Strong pricing has been indicated by processors due to China’s elevated tariffs on US growers throughout 2025. A 35% tariff on US almonds remains in place which will ensure Australian almond exports retain an advantage into the Chinese market.
The Australian Table Grape Association is forecasting national production of around 230,000 which is in line with last season's volumes. Table grapes have seen strong flowering which is positioning growers for another large crop early in the new year.
Wholesale prices across most key fruit and vegetable sectors remain in line to slightly lower year on year with a couple of key exceptions. Brown onion and potato prices are still sitting at a significant premium to 12 months ago. November is expected to see supply of brown onions and potatoes stabilise as the harvest of spring crops begins to hit store shelves.
Mangoes, berries and stonefruit are now becoming more abundant on store shelves, a key sign that the start of summer isn’t far off. Mango pricing has finally started to ease after a slow start to the season compared to prior years. Nectarines and peaches are also slowly coming to market, though in smaller volumes than usual for this time of year, which is keeping prices high. Stonefruit pricing should also drop quickly over coming weeks as volumes come to market with early season cherries also starting to pop up.
